In May, more than 130 people packed the theatrette of NSW Parliament House, as well as 195 tuning in online, for a special Parliament Unpacked event featuring a talk by Australia’s most trusted election analyst, Antony Green.

As NSW looks ahead to the March 2027 State Election, Antony shared his trademark clarity on how elections are analysed and called, what the current numbers are telling us, and how shifting voting patterns may shape the next contest.

Dan Waterworth, Senior Education Officer at NSW Parliament and organiser of the event, reflected on the audience’s growing appetite for this kind of civic discussion.

“There was a broad spectrum of people in the room: members as well as a significant number of generally interested members of the public. There were some younger faces in the room, even a school student, which is something we have been trying to achieve with Parliament Unpacked – diversifying that audience.”

Often described as the G.O.A.T. (Greatest of All Time) of election analysis, Antony opened with a personal reflection on first visiting NSW Parliament in 1971 as a Year 6 student, before taking the audience through the history of NSW elections and how geography, demography and media have shaped outcomes over time.

A key turning point, Antony noted, was the Neville Wran era, which fundamentally altered the political map and ushered in what he described as the rise of “colour politics”, including more direct media engagement and the now‑familiar Sunday press conferences.

Antony walked through marginal two‑party contests between the major parties, as well as those seats held by independents and minor parties, highlighting just how contested the next election could be.

One of the most anticipated parts of the presentation focused on the growing influence of minor parties, particularly One Nation. Antony flagged that One Nation could perform strongly in electorates such as Upper Hunter, Penrith, Camden and Riverstone, reflecting broader interstate and national trends.

While the 2025 federal election marked the first time “others” outpolled a major party, Antony noted this has not occurred at a state level, yet.

Throughout the session, Antony emphasised the distinct nature of state elections, arguing they are ultimately judged on delivery – what governments build and implement – rather than the broader economic narratives that tend to dominate federal contests.

FIND OUT MORE: The NSW Parliamentary Research Service has published a new paper on the NSW Legislative Council election 2023 by Antony Green.

This paper summarises the results of the 2023 election for 21 members of the NSW Legislative Council. It provides:

• Details on preferences, above and below the line voting, votes by party and party vote by electoral district
• Comparisons on selected party results in the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council
• An assessment of prospects for the 2027 Legislative Council election, including commentary about possible Legislative Council results based on 2025 and 2022 NSW Senate results.